extempore: bluff?

Paul Phillips (

extempore) wrote,
@ 2005-07-12 17:48:00

bluff?
Date / Time: 2005-07-12 17:44:00
Title: Raymer Gets Bluffed
Log:

With the board showing J-5-5-A-5, Bonyadi bets out $80,000. Raymer raises to $230,000. Bonyadi then reraises $400,000 more, and Raymer finally folds. Bonyadi shows the King high bluff.

Why is that a bluff? Almost guarantee if Greg plays it that way that the K was the best hand.

(31 comments) - (Post a new comment)

yep

hello_poe
2005-07-13 01:00 am UTC (link)

"Why is that a bluff? Almost guarantee if Greg plays it that way that the K was the best hand."

I was thinking the exact same thing.

The point here is just how terrible the internet updates have been. Often they just plain have the wrong board, or are calling a 4-straight a straight, or simply calling the losing hand "the winner". I don't know what kind of monkeys are keying in these updates, but I don't think they know a whole lot about poker.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: yep mandelbrot_ 2005-07-13 01:31 am UTC (link)
	I guess the pre-river action just didn't matter. Oh I get it, this was one of those special hands where the players couldn't act until the river. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: yep larrykang 2005-07-14 05:24 pm UTC (link)
	I was there. I have photos of every street and the betting. Cardplayer's hand history is incomplete (and possibly inaccurate) and therefore misleading. I would provide more evidence but this "reporting" has once again created the classic "what were they doing online thread". It was a bluff to everyone at the table. Don't waste your time analyzing the hand. (Reply to this) (Parent)

My money on Mandelbrot to win the next WCOOP

larrykang
2005-07-14 05:30 pm UTC (link)

I guess the pre-river action just didn't matter. Oh I get it, this was one of those special hands where the players couldn't act until the river.

I won't go and dig up the photos but my memory is that there was action on the flop (the $80K bet and call) and the Ace turn was checked. The river 5, was a check by Farzad, Raymer bet and then Farzad made the re-raise.

Again without a real hand history and even more data analysis is donkeyish and a waste of our times. The reporting is fit for those looking for "drama" only.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Why do I keep posting... oh yeah... I can't edit.

larrykang
2005-07-14 05:38 pm UTC (link)

More speculation... discuss further if you want to discuss based on my memory.

Me and one other better player had put Raymer on the mid pocket pair or Jack, which means that he probably made the bet on the flop. Farzad called with the flush draw and overcard. Turn check and river makes a lot of sense to me, as Farzad was representing the Ace or 5. The table (and crowd which was the pokerwire.com press and others near the ESPN table) responded to Farzad's bluff.

I'm trying to remember if this was at the end of a level and that Raymer took 4+ minutes to think. A lot of dramatic play has happened at the end of levels (when most of the press is gone). But, I may be mixing up that part with another hand.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

	Re: yep joshrogo 2005-07-13 02:46 am UTC (link)
	i agree .. i thought bonyadi showed the K to let raymer know he had the best hand .. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Which Part gfunk911z 2005-07-13 01:38 am UTC (link)
	Which makes the Jack unlikely, the raise or the fold, in your opinion? Same questions for a King. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Which Part jl2585 2005-07-13 02:44 am UTC (link)
	I think pocket pairs ought to be considered as possibilities also. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	thenutlow 2005-07-13 01:40 am UTC (link)
	So you think Bonyadi was betting his King for value? If HE thought his hand was the best, no way would he re-raise there. It is the epitomy of the worst bet in poker. (Reply to this) (Thread)

What??

kcolloran
2005-07-13 05:48 am UTC (link)

Why is it the epitome of the worst bet in poker?

Let's assume for a second that he had the fouth five hence giving him an unbeatable hand.

If he folds he loses the pot
If he just calls he only wins what's in the pot
If he raises there are two possibilities
A) Raymer folds he wins the pot
B) Raymer calls he wins more

So assuming he has the nuts he it is in fact exactly opposite of what you said.

Now of course he doesn't have a hand that he can be that of, but assuming he was totally confident in his read the raise makes sense.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: What??

thenutlow
2005-07-13 06:02 am UTC (link)

A) Raymer folds he wins the pot

Right.. but with Raymers re-raise.. its looking pretty unlikely he has a hand that can re-raise here, but NOT call a re-re-raise. Remember he is an avid sklasky-ite. First rule of DS in these situations is not to raise/re-raise with a hand that hates a re-raise.

so in order order of liklihood... its:

1) a bluff
2) an Ace
3) a five

infinity) a pair of deuces.

B) Raymer calls he wins more

How do you figure the hand plays this way where Raymer calls with a Q high or J high?

His bet has zero expectation if he had only the K high.. as the hand has played in a way that Raymer either has a hand that he calls the raise with (which beats K high) or folds to the re-raise (bluff). One things almost for certain here.. raymer isn't going to have a made hand here that folds to the final re-raise from Bonyadi.

I dont really see any point in my initial post.. was flying on auto-comment. I think it was to address that even though it was unlikely to be a bluff... Bonyadi must have felt it was one for him to a) bet and then b) show it.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: What?? thenutlow 2005-07-13 06:04 am UTC (link)
	Right.. but with Raymers re-raise.. its looking pretty unlikely he has a hand that can re-raise here, but NOT call a re-re-raise. Remember he is an avid sklasky-ite. First rule of DS in these situations is not to raise/re-raise with a hand that hates a re-raise.* that should "its looking pretty unlikely he has a MADE hand etc etc" (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Re: What?? kcolloran 2005-07-13 06:32 am UTC (link)
	Your anaylsis is good. I think if he's 100% certain that he's ahead then it can't hurt to bet. Raymer might call, although I agree the odds of that are quite low. At less than 100% it's a different fish. (Reply to this) (Parent)

maybe

wi1lyloman
2005-07-13 01:56 am UTC (link)

I agree Raymer probably trailed (he just calls with the J and maybe the A, and he doesn't fold the A), but I'd like to know if either player was in the blinds and what the action was pre-river. If Raymer limped, he could have 22-44 or maybe KQ or KT (even 66-99). These are all bad calling hands since your opponent could have a middle pair and think he's bluffing, or else suspect he has the best hand but bet to preempt a bluff because he knows you're very aggressive. So I could see Raymer treating these the same as 2-3 on this board. And certainly none of these are calling hands against a big reraise.

(Reply to this)

	What about me zachjake 2005-07-13 02:50 am UTC (link)
	I busted Sunday around 2:30. What are the chances you will comment on my bust out hand? (Reply to this)

	ohkanada 2005-07-13 02:59 am UTC (link)
	Well I watched the latest cardplayer video and Greg implies he wished he called the guy so it appears if greg had some type of pair. He wouldn't say what he had. Ken (Reply to this) (Thread)

Maybe Raymer had a K.

hello_poe
2005-07-13 03:16 am UTC (link)

The more I think about it, they were probably bluff-raising each other, when neither could really call. I agree that more information about the hand is necessary.

Raymer may have wished for a call, because it was cheaper than the bluff raise. Maybe he had a Q high or something.

I think we can rule out Raymer having a piece of the board. Some small pocket pair in the hole is a possibility.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

	action kennyrobbins 2005-07-13 03:16 am UTC (link)
	freddy had the nut flush draw on the flop. I am guessing that there was action on the flop and turn, which meant that king high probably was a bluff. At least freddy thought he was bluffing. Raymer most likely had a pocket pair from what he said in the interview. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: action kennyrobbins 2005-07-13 03:53 am UTC (link)
	Paul, how did you get so popular? http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/pop.php (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: action smarkus 2005-07-13 04:22 am UTC (link)
	He linked to it in a slate article. Paul cheats like that. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	"I wish I'd called Freddy's bluff." fun160 2005-07-13 04:16 am UTC (link)
	Here is the interview in which Raymer discussed the hand with Card Player. (Reply to this)

	I would have thought the same, howardtreesong 2005-07-13 04:34 am UTC (link)
	but that hard-hitting Rich Belski conducts an interview in which Greg says otherwise. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: I would have thought the same, extempore 2005-07-13 04:37 am UTC (link)
	I haven't seen the interview but if he had a pair it's a pretty horrible river raise. It is unlikely he can be called by a worse hand but he can be bluffed out. I would only raise the river there with quads, an ace, or a hand that could not win. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: I would have thought the same, wi1lyloman 2005-07-13 04:56 am UTC (link)
	So if you read weakness, do you call with 22? How about K-high? (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Link here howardtreesong 2005-07-13 04:59 am UTC (link)
	if you can stomach Belski long enough to get to it: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_videos/?tournament=93 (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Re: Link here fun160 2005-07-13 05:04 am UTC (link)
	See my my post above. I've linked directly to the interview. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Re: I would have thought the same, nottom 2005-07-13 05:27 am UTC (link)
	If Raymer is wrong to raise with a small pair, then isn't the raise with the K also wrong since raymer should only have a hand that is calling or a hand you beat? (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: I would have thought the same,

extempore
2005-07-13 05:31 am UTC (link)

"Wrong" is tricky to define here. If raymer is only raising with an ace or a hand that cannot win, then of course re-raising with a K is wrong. But it sounds like he wasn't, in which case re-raising is great.

I am still a little skeptical that raymer could beat the K. If he could, I still think it's a horrible river raise. What better hand will fold to the small raise? What worse hand will call that can barely beat the board?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: I would have thought the same,

gimmedawatch
2005-07-13 03:13 pm UTC (link)

When I 1st read the blurb at Cardplayer, I had the same thoughts as Paul, was confused, and also suspicious that they had gotten the action wrong. I was surprised, then, to see the video of Raymer saying he was upset he had folded and even more confused. First, I'm a little surprised Freddy would re-raise w/K hi as from his point of view Raymer is either a)bluffing, when there's obviously no need to re-raise or b)has an ace or a 5 and asssuming you can push Raymer off an ace is either brilliant or absurdly presumptuoous. Guess he's brilliant. I really think Raymer basically has to have an ace here (and I dont see why on earth he would lie in the interview about regretting his fold, even though he did decline to reveal his hand) in order to raise, but the raise is still a little sketchy since alot of the time worse hands will fold anyway. Maybe Raymer's mindset was that there isn't much downside to making a small value raise with the ace b/c Freddy wouldnt dare play back without a 5. Speaking of confusing hands, would extempore care to comment on the final hand of last year's WSOP? I was surprised to find myself in the minority concerning the play of the hand.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Re: I would have thought the same,

icall
2005-07-13 03:56 pm UTC (link)

If Raymer's raise makes it so unlikely that he has a pair, unlikely enough for you to say the K-high re-raise was not a bluff, then doesn't that mean that Freddy should be calling the raise with precisely such hands as K-high? If Raymer's raise is a mistake because better hands won't fold and worse hands won't call then certainly Freddy's re-raise is even worse for the same reasons.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

	At Least They Didn't Call It A Bad Beat... matchesmalone 2005-07-13 07:59 am UTC (link)
	There's also bluffing with the best hand...which means it wasn't really a bluff in the first place, and Raymer was bluffing.... Sometimes writers don't get terms straight.... (Reply to this)

(31 comments) - (Post a new comment)

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