after all, it's a game of incomplete information
I'll write about day three sometime but it may be a while before I have a chance. Right now I'll go backward.

With respect to jennifer and the aces (didn't they open for the B-52s?) this comment totally nailed it. And people, even pros, tend to be totally unaware of how much of their analysis is retrofitted to their knowledge of the cards. I told jennifer that from what I had read, most poker players agreed it was a no-sweat laydown and she said I should have presented it without the cards or from a partial knowledge perspective. Unfortunately that'd be impossible since the hand was already all over the wires.

So to derail that tendency a little bit, and maybe help illustrate the sometimes subtle operation of the "I know the cards" syndrome, starting now I'll present some hands with more unknowns. For this to have the desired effect people have to really think about the unknowns rather than glazing over and waiting for me to fill in the blanks.

By the way, I showed her the set because she showed me the aces and because I like her. She took a chance by providing that information and chose to reciprocate. I don't know if I'd have shown her a hand that couldn't beat aces. I would not have shown the set to anyone but a friend.

On day one in nine hours I only played three hands where I put in more than a tiny fraction of my stack. Once again I was rewarded for this with a healthy stack on day two. My day one results have consistently been best when I pursue chips only strictly in accordance with card value. That's a big hint regarding these hands, but we can start easy and dial up the challenge later.

Level 2, 50-100: I have 9500. Mid-position limper, I limp in the cutoff. Button makes it 600, first limper calls. I make it 2100, both other players call. Flop is 864 with two diamonds. Check, check, button bets 4000. First guy drops and I check-raise all-in for about 3000 more. The button has me covered with another 3000 or so to spare. What do I have? What should the button call with? What should he lay down?

Level 3, 75-150: I have 15K at a new table. Folded to me on the button and I make it 550. The big blind, who has me covered by roughly 1000, re-raises to 2500. I re-raise to 6000. What do I have? What hands should he call or jam with?

Level 5, 100-200/25: I have 30K. There are two limpers and I make it 1200 in late position. Only the second limper calls, and he only has about 6000 remaining. The flop comes AJ6 rainbow. He checks and I check. The turn is an 8. Now he moves all-in and I call instantly. What does he have? What should I have called him with?

I know I'm failing to include any detail about these players but it's enough to go on that they were all amateurs who had demonstrated the ability to make significant mistakes.

Then there is this hand from day two, which may have been the key hand of the tournament for me until the very late stages for reasons that should become apparent later. The big blind was a conscious player but UTG had made several questionable plays.

Level 8, 300-600/75: I have 60K. UTG (100K) limps and I call in the small blind. The big blind (12K) raps and the flop comes 863 with two spades. We check to UTG who bets 3K. I call and the big blind mini-check-raises to 6K. Now UTG mini-re-raises to 12K. After long consideration I call, and the big blind calls all-in. What does everyone have? The turn is an offsuit king. I check. I ask again, what does everyone have? UTG checks. The river is the 3 of spades. I bet 10K into the 40K pot. What do I have? UTG quickly calls. What does he have?

Discuss.

(135 comments) - (Post a new comment)

	erikred 2005-08-31 06:13 pm UTC (link)
	If you're looking for a winning poker algorithm here, more power to you. If you're trying to illustrate the player experience, however, it would help if you provided at least one side of the equation (i.e., the cards one of the players is holding). Right now, you could just as easily be talking about corporate mergers as poker hands.... Thank you. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	extempore 2005-08-31 06:24 pm UTC (link)
	At the moment this is just an exercise in inferring cards from actions. The player-oriented experience will emerge someday, perhaps in other hands. Call this the "rail-oriented" experience. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - erikred, 2005-08-31 07:06 pm UTC

brenthog823 2005-08-31 06:24 pm UTC (link)

I'll bite on the first one, but I'm off to work. You have an over pair, or a set of 8's. He should call with Ax of diamonds, most likely AK. Now if he also has an over pair then your in the same situation Jennifer was in or very close to it. Then he has to make a read, and it's not probable that this random player has the ability that Jennifer does. I would say he should call with AA-JJ. I say that knowing that I would have called with Jen's aces and would have lost(maybe). The only cards that would be folded would be a bluff, and possibly 99-TT. I'm not claiming to have the foresight of Jen though, so if i'm way off my ego will still be in check. (Reply to this)

	2nd Problem leafsba 2005-08-31 06:30 pm UTC (link)
	I'll take a go at the second one with a generic answer. I say you have TT-AA, AKo+. He should call or jam with QQ-AA, AKs. He has to give you credit for some real hand as opposed to a move here as you are both significant stacks. If I am not even remotely close with the analysis, forgive me as I've only been playing tournament poker semi-seriously for about 8 months :) (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: 2nd Problem leafsba 2005-08-31 06:45 pm UTC (link)
	I neglected to comment on the board... I only discussed preflop, which changes a lot of things in my assessment... He shouldn't call with the AK now but rather any set or QQ-AA. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: 2nd Problem - leafsba, 2005-08-31 06:50 pm UTC

	Level 2 richgambler 2005-08-31 06:31 pm UTC (link)
	This smells like you have Aces or Kings(cuz of your limp-raise).....He should call you with Aces, 2 pair, or a set and folding anything else....when people limp-reraise like this pf, it reeks of a big pair...of course, this is player dependent....just my 2 cents....will respond to later levels in another post (Reply to this)

Level 2 hand clutch_c 2005-08-31 06:35 pm UTC (link)

You aren't able to put in a big enough reraise on the river to chase him off (he has to call 3000 vs pot of 17,000) so you know he is going to call unless he is on a total bluff. So you must have a real hand, too. A hand you could reraise with pre-flop and be willing to play for all your chips postflop? Sounds like a big pair. In his place I would call with AA, KK, QQ or any of the sets (8, 6 or 4), or a made straight (75), though that hand is unlikely. He is also getting the correct odds to call if he has a diamond draw. Even with a middle pair (99,TT, JJ) or tptk (A8) the pot might be big enough for him to call because of the possibility you are bluffing and even if you aren't he could hit one of his outs. (Reply to this)

deepdowntruth 2005-08-31 06:40 pm UTC (link)

I think you've proven your point with regard to how difficult these decisions are when you don't know the cards. I'm terrible at this, but I'll be brave and give it a shot. Level 3, 75-150: I have 15K at a new table. Folded to me on the button and I make it 550. The big blind, who has me covered by roughly 1000, re-raises to 2500. I re-raise to 6000. What do I have? What hands should he call or jam with? With the blinds at 75-150, let's face it, if you when them you'd increase your stack by about 1.5%, not that a big a deal to relinquish them without a fight. My guess is that we amateurs would tend to take it as an affront if our blinds are attacked, especially if it had happened a few times before, and fight back. Your raise to 550 on the button doesn't necessarily indicate anything about the strength of your hand, given that this play is probably right with any two cards, given his propensity to fold combined with the chance that you'll be able to actually win the hand if he calls. I would tend to think that his re-raise showed more weakness than a smaller enticing raise or a smooth-call. So he probably had a hand that had a better than average chance of winning a showdown, but not much more than that. Maybe a medium ace or a medium pair. Your re-raise to 6000 has to give him pause now, as you are now committing 40% of your stack to this play and are asking him to basically do the same. His calling range at this point has to be pretty tight, but your raising range can be looser than that, again given the propensity to make him fold + your chances to win. So I think you must have had an AQ+ or a 99+. Though you probably could have been doing this with less, given that you're a "tricky player". And if you did have a huge hand here, what better way to get action than to put in a fake-blind steal. I think for him to keep playing here, he's gotta have AKs or Jacks or better to keep playing. In the BB, I would let it go while I've only got 2500 committed unless I've got something big. And I don't think he can call here. Anyway, I suck and have no idea. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	deepdowntruth 2005-08-31 06:42 pm UTC (link)
	pardon the couple of spelling errors, e.g. 'when' should equal 'win', etc. damn extemporaneous typing (Reply to this) (Parent)

(no subject) - deepdowntruth, 2005-08-31 07:25 pm UTC

Level 5 riddle answer sleepycell 2005-08-31 06:41 pm UTC (link)

you clearly have JJ or some other set, while the "amateur" has a weak suited Ace (A10, A9) that does not pair up. you kick his ass with your set and he wimpers home with his weak ace. you'd probably bet out with his stack size with anyhing less than a set. yur flop check gave this riddle away. who is (current chip leader) Todd Phillips? your evil twin? a computer generated doppleganger? (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Level 5 riddle answer kevmath 2005-08-31 07:20 pm UTC (link)
	Todd Phillips has written/directed films such as Starsky and Hutch, Old School, and Road Trip. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Level 3 hand clutch_c 2005-08-31 06:43 pm UTC (link)
	The size of your reraise here says that you don't mind a call. In his position I would jam with AA or KK only. Definitely fold 22-JJ, and hands like AK, AQ, suited or not. QQ is a tough decision. I don't think I have the disciple to lay it down, I guess. (Reply to this)

Quiz factor fnurt 2005-08-31 06:52 pm UTC (link)

It may make for better analysis if you omit the results, but you still have to deal with what we call in backgammon the "quiz factor" - the very fact that you are asking the question tells people that something is up and they ought to consider plays other than the one that seems obvious. Also, the nature of poker is that the results don't really tell you if the play was correct anyway. Most people would say Jennifer's laydown was a great play in the sense that she got away from a losing hand, but was it the correct play? Maybe it was, but for the sake of argument, let's say when Paul makes this particular all-in reraise he has a set 30% of the time and he is behind AA the other 70% of the time. Given those hypothetical facts, Jennifer's laydown would be the wrong decision, even though this particular case happened to be one of the 30% where it turns out well. This is true for exactly the same reason that her laydown wouldn't have become "bad" if an Ace was due to come on the river. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Quiz factor kutuz_off 2005-08-31 08:40 pm UTC (link)
	Does this kind of logic work in case of someone who claims to play based more on reads than on math? Then the "right" play is a matter of making a correct or an incorrect read rather than working out the percentages. She made a correct one. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: Quiz factor - fnurt, 2005-08-31 09:27 pm UTC

Re: Quiz factor - kutuz_off, 2005-08-31 09:43 pm UTC

nibor 2005-08-31 06:54 pm UTC (link)

I'll preface this by saying I'm an absolute novice at poker, especially NL. That said, here's what I've got for the first hand: You limped behind, and then re-raised the button about the size of the pot. I'm thinking this probably means you have a pretty big hand already; Aces, maybe Kings (or you've decided to make a move with a more speculative hand). You then check-raise the flop; and my math has it at around 3400 to call into a pot of 17850 for the button, which is pretty good odds. I'd feel fairly good about the high pair read now, maybe even with the Ad, although if you were making a move early, you (maybe) could have hit the flop into a set of 8s or a straight draw/flush draw/straight flush draw. Getting about 5:1 on his money, the button can call with flush draws, top pair+backdoor straight+backdoor flush, and so on. What he can't call with is a lower overpair; it would be a very hard laydown for me to put my kings in the muck, but I think you've done a very direct job of representing the aces, and it's probably the right play. Anything lower than kings is probably easier to toss here. Of course, if he puts you on a fairly large probability of making a move pre-flop (maybe over 20%? something in that range), he can still call with kings. The only hands you can have that don't offer pot odds are a set or the aces; even if you have something like 8s6s, 9d7d, or AdKd he should call with kings. (Reply to this)

Best Guesses es0terix 2005-08-31 06:55 pm UTC (link)

Hand 1 - I'm guessing you have KK or AA, most likely AA because of the limp/re-raise to a point where it's evident it's going to take something catastrophic for you to not be committed on this hand. I think he can only call you with AA or a set, or AK of diamonds and lay down almost everything else barring some previous info on you or a real good read. Still early in the tournament to put in all your chips when you might be drawing virtually dead with KK. Hand 2 - You have something in the area of 77-TT, or AK or AQ, not because of your button raise (which could have been with 10-8) but because of the re-raise. It's either that or you DO have something like 10-8 and you're on a re-re-steal, but it seems kinda early for that, unless you're just trying to send a message to the guy not to re-steal from you. With 22-66 there I think you'd just call his re-raise and see a flop. I think he needs to call with AK or any pair from 8s-Js, and move in with QQ, KK, or AA. Hand 3 - I think in this one you hit the flop BIG (like AJ, A6 or JJ), because of the check on the flop, then calling instantaneously (although 88 is a possibility). I think there with 2400 in the pot, there's a good chance he's just on a semi-bluff with KQ or some kind of suited-connector, so I think you have to call with even a weak ace there because of your stack and the likelihood he is just on a steal (that 2400+ in the pot means a lot to his 6000). Hand 4 - One the flop: Assuming he doesn't suck, you can pretty much rule out AA or KK for the UTG limper because that is a very dangerous play that, in my experience, almost always leads to a feux-bad beat story or winning a small pot. UTG's overbet of 3k bet seems like he has 99, TT or JJ and wants to drive out any spade draws or baby straight draws (which SB and BB very well may have). Also, he knows he'll most likely get raised by a set or AA/KK there and it's an easy laydown. I originally thought paul had KQspades but his going into the tank makes me think he's figuring whether he's ahead or now, whereas with KQspades he would know right away. I'm thinking maybe K-8 with the Kspades?? That's a hard one. BB calls all-in, probably TT or JJ, possibly A-8. On the turn - seeing as there is no sidepot, both of you are probably content to check down and eliminate the all-in player. I think Paul is on a draw, and the guys knows Paul is on a draw. On the River - See, now I think Paul made a boat and wants the guy to pay you off with the flush. 6-8 is the most likely since they're somewhat connected and more playable from the SB. Really can't figure out what he'd be calling with there other than a somewhat high flush. I know some of these are going to be WAY off and I do want people to correct me if one of them was grossly idiotic, but please do it in a civilized way. These are just educated guesses and I am not claiming to be some great poker mind. Let me know what you guys think and we can help each other become better in our reads. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Best Guesses es0terix 2005-08-31 07:03 pm UTC (link)
	After a little consideration, the limp-raise certainly represented AA (which is evident by the first people people all saying that's what you had) so you may have just been, in fact, representing AA on what you thought was a play by the raiser. If that is the fact than touche, nice hand sir. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: Best Guesses - pokahsnice, 2005-09-01 06:03 pm UTC

Re: Best Guesses - es0terix, 2005-08-31 07:11 pm UTC

Re: Best Guesses - andy_ward_uk, 2005-08-31 07:18 pm UTC

Re: Best Guesses - es0terix, 2005-08-31 08:17 pm UTC

Re: Best Guesses - howardtreesong, 2005-08-31 09:26 pm UTC

Level 5 hand clutch_c 2005-08-31 06:57 pm UTC (link)

After the checks on the flop, he could make that bet with almost anything. He could have a weak ace, or a J, or a small pocket pair. But he could also be just trying to pick up the pot after seeing you check. It's hard to put him on any specific one of these, though the preflop call of your raise suggests something like QJ or KJ, or maybe a small pair. It costs you about 20% of your stack to call. I would make the call with any A or J, or any medium pocket pair or above (77 or above, I guess). (Reply to this)

andy_ward_uk 2005-08-31 07:06 pm UTC (link)

Yes, this is much more fun ! 1) I think you have an overpair, probably a big one as you surely can't check 99-QQ, can you ? I don't put you on AdKd or anything like that because I think you would bet the flop (probably move in) to make sure all your opponents have a chance to fold. He's getting about 5-1 on this final call so he has to call with almost anything (including semi-trash like 98s). Just about the only hand he can drop here is 99 or TT with no diamonds. Then again from his seat maybe you could have AdKd - I wouldn't blame him for only folding a complete bluff. I have to say I'm a bit surprised you check-raised that flop third to speak out of 4 with any holding - did you have a good idea that the button was going to bet ? 2) I don't think you're screwing around here, the blinds are too small. You have a premium hand, possibly Jacks or better. AK ? I'm not sure - I'll say probably not. He should play AA, KK. QQ is marginal and I would probably (make that hopefully :-)) pass AK. 3) I think you have a set (probably Jacks), he has an Ace, probably AQ or AT. You should have called him with AK or better. 4) Now this is trickier. I think UTG has a remarkably poorly played overpair that he was hoping to limp-reraise with pre-flop. Big blind has flopped two pair ? Hard to tell, god knows what he's trying to do making it 6K. I think you have a spade draw but it's not impossible you might have limped with anything (eg a 3) if you didn't expect the BB to raise. Check-check when the King arrives probably implies that he has QQ or JJ, then again he might be one of "always check down an all-in" school so I don't rule AA out completely. No more information as to your hand yet. River - you have most likely a flush but at least trip 3s, and he calls with now most probably AA or QQ. Looking forward to hearing the reality ! Andy. (Reply to this)

mdblakers 2005-08-31 07:23 pm UTC (link)

This is difficult and all speculation. But here is goes. More than likely I'm way off. Level 2, 50-100: I have 9500. Mid-position limper, I limp in the cutoff. Button makes it 600, first limper calls. I make it 2100, both other players call. Flop is 864 with two diamonds. Check, check, button bets 4000. First guy drops and I check-raise all-in for about 3000 more. The button has me covered with another 3000 or so to spare. What do I have? A8 diamonds 99, 88 or 66 What should the button call with? TT-AA or A high diamond draw. What should he lay down? open ended or gut shot straight draw and any K high or lower flush draw or over cards. Level 3, 75-150: I have 15K at a new table. Folded to me on the button and I make it 550. The big blind, who has me covered by roughly 1000, re-raises to 2500. I re-raise to 6000. What do I have? QQ-AA possibly AK suited. What hands should he call or jam with? Call with JJ or AQs or AKos. Jam with KK-AA or AK suited. Level 5, 100-200/25: I have 30K. There are two limpers and I make it 1200 in late position. Only the second limper calls, and he only has about 6000 remaining. The flop comes AJ6 rainbow. He checks and I check. The turn is an 8. Now he moves all-in and I call instantly. What does he have? AQ or AK maybe A8s. What should I have called him with? Insta-call. Maybe AJos or JJ or 66. Level 8, 300-600/75: I have 60K. UTG (100K) limps and I call in the small blind. The big blind (12K) raps and the flop comes 863 with two spades. We check to UTG who bets 3K. I call and the big blind mini-check-raises to 6K. Now UTG mini-re-raises to 12K. After long consideration I call, and the big blind calls all-in. What does everyone have? You - A6 spades ; BB 79 UTG 86s or pocket 3's. The turn is an offsuit king. I check. I ask again, what does everyone have? No K or else someone would of bet here. I don't think this card helped anyone. UTG checks. The river is the 3 of spades. I bet 10K into the 40K pot. What do I have? Possibly Nut flush looking to value bet the river and hoping he comes over the top. UTG quickly calls. What does he have? weaker flush or two pair. I now don't put him on pocket 3's since he would raised on the river. (Reply to this)

catch2002 2005-08-31 07:23 pm UTC (link)

1) smells like aces here. I would say possibly kings but I would think with kings you may want to shut out a limp with a crappy Ax. Of course if you really suspected that the button would raise two limpers then I would say you could have aces, kings, or even queens. You'd have to be very confident of the button raise with QQ though and you may even reraise more with Queens since more overcards kill you. All in all, I'd say aces. The button should call with 79 of diamonds ( a gamble with 15 outs but hey gotta accumulate chips sometimes), any made set, that pesky 57 hand, and even any made two pair. He should lay down any overpair unless he also has aces...then it becomes tricky but I think he has to call because you simply would NOT limp/raise preflop with 8s, 6s, or 4s. So if he has aces, especially the ace of diamonds he should also call. I do not believe in calling with AK suited as 9 outs is a little too much of a gamble for my taste at level 2. 2) He may think your raise (Although large) is a button steal because you specified that these players make mistakes and one mistake I think tournament players in the BB make a lot is assuming the BB HAS to be stealing. I would put you on JJ or QQ here. Aces or kings I would see maybe calling in position after his reraise. His raise would say to me that he has an ace face hand...since you could be up against two overcards with QQ or JJ, you want the hand to be done with but if he reraises you all in you don't mind calling a "weak" player with JJ or QQ at all. Therefore, I think he should call with Aces or Kings, hope the flop comes all under cards to face cards and can get the rest of your chips. I also dont mind raising all in here since you would probably have to call a "weak" player you may put on AK, 1010, or JJ (if you have QQ). I dont like calling here if he has AK because if he calls and an ace or a king flops, a tricky check raise will not get you to commit any more chips...then again, the pot would be huge at this point so maybe it would. all in all, if he calls this monstrous bet you really would have to put him on aces, kings, queens, or ace face. Therefore, any card that helps him would probably crush you so I cant see you putting any more in the pot if you have JJ and the flop is A10x, even if he checks. So, if he really wants to gamble it up with the AK he should raise all in, not call. I would do neither but if he is frisky raising with AK makes more sense, I dont LIKE that play but Im just saying its better than calling with AK I think. Personally, I would muck everything but Queens, Kings, and Aces here, especially out of position. 3) If I had to narrow it down , I would say you have 66 or 88 and he has AJ. I don't see him limping with AK. It's also possible he has A6 but that would be mightly loose to call your raise with, out of position. I think you were either slowplaying the set or taking a free card with the 8s. I dont see you calling his bet with just a pair. You have him well covered but it still is about 2x the pot size. I think he had AJ, wanted to slowplay, then got nervous he would get no action so just made a weird all in move. (Reply to this) (Thread)

catch2002 2005-08-31 07:24 pm UTC (link)

4) I think the big blind has something like Q8...a hand that is too crappy to go all in preflop, but not he thinks he has the best hand (at least currently) but also would have preferred both of you guys just fold. I dont see BB as having the flush draw because wouldnt he just push in after the flop and hope you guys muck? I think checkraising there says he has a made hand that is vulnerable to overcards. From the way this question is framed I think you have 33. I would put the UTG guy on 99 or a flush draw with overcards, spefically AQ suited...something to limp from first position and then bet out and call some raises with...but also something that did NOT like that king. I think you were value betting the made quads on the end knowing the guy couldnt lay down the flush or middle pair for that 1/5 price you offered and in many cases you were hoping for a reraise. I guess you could also hae 88 , but I would think you would raise with that hand preflop, although you would be out of position. 66 is possible also. For some reason I dont think you had the flush draw in the face of two raises..it is possible you had something like A9 of spades I suppose, the UTG had 10s, and your bet on the end was a pure value bet because you could read the UTG for an overpair. Maybe its just me but that bet on the end is SO small I think you had a REAL monster, so thats why I said quads (Reply to this) (Parent)

(no subject) - catch2002, 2005-08-31 07:33 pm UTC

Hand 1 fivehawks 2005-08-31 07:45 pm UTC (link)

I think you have AA, with the ace of diamonds. Limp reraising preflop with any of the 3 hands that flop a set makes no sense. You have already shown considerable strength by limp reraising, so there is a high risk that the button will check behind you on the flop. I suspect your preflop play was partially based on the button being an extremely aggressive player, making a preflop raise very possible, as well as a bet on the flop if you checked into him - but even super aggressive players have some sense when they are being set up, and unless he was clueless he had to recognize that a check raise was very possible from you. Given the risk that he could check behind you,I think the only hand you would risk this with is AA - other hands are just too vulnerable, especially with 2 players still in. I am even assuming you were further comforted in making this play by the presence of the A of diamonds, in case he checks and a diamond comes off on the turn. One other thing - no way do have AK of diamonds or something like that - if you are willing to commit your stack with that hand (and probably you are) you have to move in on the flop to take advantage of the fold equity, since you basically have a strongly speculative hand that is only ace high at this point. If I am in his shoes, I first recognize that I am getting almost 6:1 on the call. However you know this too, and have to believe that I am pot committed to call with almost any reasonable hand. So also knowing that you are a very rational player, I virtually eliminate the possibly that your bet is some sort of move or semi-bluff. I am only happy to call with AA 88 66 44, or a diamond draw. I also call pretty quickly with KK, but not as thrilled. I probably call with QQ or JJ, but with some sense of impending doom. I fold anything else. If I was against a different player, my calling requirements would be very different - I would call if I had 2 pair of any kind, due to combined odds of sucking out if you have an overpair, combined with possibility that you are a maniac semibluffing a flush draw. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Hand 1 fivehawks 2005-08-31 07:56 pm UTC (link)
	At end of my post I said I would call with 2 pair of any kind. While this is obviously true, I meant any pair. I would call with 2 pair 2 (or a straight, or open ended straight), but I pretty much left hands that I viewed as nonsensical even for a maniac out of my analysis. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Throwing it out there.... bdub72 2005-08-31 07:52 pm UTC (link)
	Just vomiting up a novice opinion re: the following guesses for the first three (I am guessing Paul P's cards): 1) Two big diamonds 2) JJ (no idea what you should do) 3) AK As for what action, I continue to be lost. Looking forward to hearing the answers. WB (Reply to this)

keevon 2005-08-31 07:54 pm UTC (link)

This is my first time posting here, but I wanted to add something that I think other responses may have missed. For the level 2 hand, a lot of people have put you on AA and KK. I think I agree with this, but I believe you also have the A or K of diamonds in your hand. If you didn't have a diamond, your check on the flop could end up disasterous if the button checks through and a 3rd diamond comes. I'm thinking AA with the A of diamonds is the most likely. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	The problem with AKd dougie_nutz 2005-09-02 05:58 am UTC (link)
	The check raise on the flop is not a good move with AKd. Only a pure bluff will fold to 3000 more and Paul is only coinflip or worse against a pair or better. When Paul checked it was because he wanted to get called so you can expect that he as a hand that has a significant edge over the likely field. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: The problem with AKd - keevon, 2005-09-02 09:59 am UTC

	Aces greg_kelley 2005-08-31 07:57 pm UTC (link)
	Um.. do you have AA in all three scenarios? (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Aces jwll2 2005-08-31 08:19 pm UTC (link)
	In the first hand I think its fairly safe to say Paul has AK/AQ diamonds. I dont imagine him limping behind another limping with AA. I think he wanted action from both players hence the check raise all in. In order for that he has to have a hand where he knows hes drawing to the nuts. (Reply to this) (Parent)

dmorr 2005-08-31 08:12 pm UTC (link)

Level 8, 300-600/75: I have 60K. UTG (100K) limps and I call in the small blind. The big blind (12K) raps and the flop comes 863 with two spades. We check to UTG who bets 3K. I call and the big blind mini-check-raises to 6K. Now UTG mini-re-raises to 12K. After long consideration I call, and the big blind calls all-in. What does everyone have? The turn is an offsuit king. I check. I ask again, what does everyone have? UTG checks. The river is the 3 of spades. I bet 10K into the 40K pot. What do I have? UTG quickly calls. What does he have? This is the most interesting one, simply because the play is so strange. The pot is 2500 or so on the flop, UTG bets, but he was checked to so he could be betting anything he'd limp with UTG. Paul calls, and the BB min reraises? That's very strange. With a somewhat drawy board like that, it seems like if he had a draw he'd want to just call rather than reopen the betting, but if he has a made hand, he probably wants to put in enough money to push off the draws, if possible. Anyway, moving in is a pot sized bet for him, so it seems like the natural play. All of which leads me to believe he has a big made hand that's not very vulnerable, like top two or a set. With a smallish overpair he really ought to make a bigger bet; with a big overpair, he would have raised preflop. With a draw good enough to put all his chips in with he should move in to gain fold equity. I'd probably move in with the big hands as well, but at least they're slow-play-able. Then utg reraises (more than the min, which would be to 9k). He also has some kind of made hand, it seems, since this is another bizarre play with a draw. For him, I suspect a smallish overpair or possible top pair, or maybe 77. On the other hand, he makes a lot of mistakes, so who knows, maybe he does have a flush draw. People do limp with Axs. However, I think Paul has a A-high flush draw, or maybe some bigger draw like a flush draw and a gutshot. The passive calling sure looks like a draw, there's no bluff equity with an all in player, and he bet when he got there. Paul's getting 3-1 on the call, which is ok if he gets two cards or has more outs than just a flush draw (eg his A is good), especially if there's implied odds to be had. He's obviously not bluffing on the river into a protected pot and a bad player, so he made something. It's hard to believe that he'd slow play that much on the flop, so I put Paul on a flush. UTG calls, so he has something, maybe a pair? My guess is a pair under the K, like A8 or 77 or 99 or something. I guess it's conceivable he could have a worse flush, but I doubt he has something that strong. Ok, that's probably enough typing for now. (Reply to this)

well_rested 2005-08-31 08:31 pm UTC (link)

Yes, this way of presenting hands is much more interesting. A few guesses: Hand 1) I would think that early in a tournament, PP only limp reraises in that spot with JJ to AA. I suppose there is a chance PP could have AK of diamonds or a smaller pair, but that seems less likely than the other options. The button is getting almost 5 to 1 on the call after Paul's last bet. A successful conclusion brings that player to 23000 in chips. If the guy folds, he's down to 6000 in level 2. I think that the Button has to call with any two diamonds, make a frustrated call with 55 or 77, and fold 99 through JJ. He should insta-call with 88, 66, or 44. If he has QQ or KK (which seems highly unlikely given the preflop play), I think he should reluctantly fold. If he has AA, he is either an idiot or a genius, and he should probably call. My prevailing impression of the hand is that Paul liked the flop and is going to get all his money in with action. If someone flopped a little set, so be it. Hand 2) I would put Paul on AA or KK. Opponent should jam with AA or fold. I realize this makes me seem incredibly vulnerable, but I don't care. I hate using this term, but I'd pick a better spot to gamble than this one. eh. That's not actually what I think. What I really think is that either Paul has AA, or he has enough of a read on the opponent to reraise a 5x preflop raise with less than AA and get that opponent to fold. I have faith that Paul knew the guy's hand was trashy. Maybe Paul knew the guy read his blog. Or Paul really had AA. I vote AA. Hand 3) What does the opponent have? jesus. If he thought he was betting the best hand, he could have J/10 or better depending on how adept he was at reading the situation. If he was on a steal, he could have anything after the check/check on the flop. If the 8 put a possible flush draw on the board, I'd tend to put the guy on at least a pair and a flush draw (semi-bluff). I guess 9/10 is a small possibility here. Just to hurry this up, I'll put him on a weak suited Ace. Paul should have called him with AQ or better, and PP certainly has AQ or better here...I would think. Hand 4) I would guess that PP has nut spades, probably A/J or A/10. I think that UTG has 99, or connecting spades that made some sort of a straight draw with 863, giving him a small flush. I put the BB on any 8. I'm not giving any reasons because I fear massive flaming for my relative inexperience at this level of play. (Reply to this)

Hand #1 forrest_faulk 2005-08-31 08:43 pm UTC (link)

Hand one!! The button must call 3000 into a 17300 pot getting 5.75-1 or so. If Paul were to bet the flop into the button this would significantly lower the buttons pot odds. By checking Paul is risking A) Giving a free card on a connected flop with two suited cards and B) Giving extremely good pot odds to the button if he does in fact bet and Paul intends to go all-in. I personally feel that anyone (not just Paul) wouldn't want to risk A & B without having a better hand then just an overpair (including AA) Everyone seems to be assuming that his limp raise is automatically AA, KK, or QQ but that is not the case, if he only limp raised with these hands he would be giving away too much information about his hand to other players. In my range of Paul's limp raise I would include any and all pairs combined with the fact that he risked A & B as described above I would put him on a set. I can not see him giving a free card and the odds he gave once he did check raise with anything less then a set. In the heat of the moment I probably don't put him on a set do to the action but in looking at it I think that is very reasonably. 99% I say set 1% I say 57 for the nut straight but then again I am a donkey so I don't know much!! Feel free to tell my how far off I am Paul. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Hand #1 es0terix 2005-08-31 08:49 pm UTC (link)
	I like your point about if the guy bets and Paul moves in the guy is getting a good price to call. I think your analysis is one of the best thus far. (Reply to this) (Parent)

faildintelctual 2005-08-31 08:45 pm UTC (link)

hand 1 - i would say you are on AdKd, JJ, TT or 88, but most likely 88. after youve taken the lead preflop, its surprising you wouldnt bet out on the flop, opting for a check raise, as you seem to be a fairly aggressive player. i dont think you would limp raise in the cutoff with AK, so i think 88. the top set check raise makes most sense. he should call with any straight or flush draw. overpairs are suspect...i find it unlikely he has KK or AA, unless he decided to gamble and let the limper into the pot. i dont know if he can get off of it with QQ. hand 2 - you have jacks or better, probably KK or AA...at least thats what youre representing, right? he should call with KK or AA. if he's got QQ he's got a decision, but i think he should muck it. hand 3 - i want to say he has 99 or TT, but thats an awfully cavalier all in on the turn. AQ doesnt make sense, as he didnt bring it in himself. i think he has AJ and you must have top 2 or better to call. if you call instantly, im thinking you were hit a set. where on the board it is, i dont know. hand 4 - i think you flopped a set or 2 pair. BB is on a draw - spades or a straight and UTG is either on overs and a spade draw...TJ maybe. you filled up on the river...either pocket 6s or 63. maybe 33 in teh hole for quads. he made his spades. it strikes me now, that im either going to look like an idiot, which is normal, or, if im right, i will be left wondering why the hell i cant do this when im playing. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	es0terix 2005-08-31 08:53 pm UTC (link)
	As stated before in my guesses, I definitely think Paul filled up on the river. The "after some consideration" may have been him considering inverse (or negative) implied odds if the other guy flopped a set of 8s and Paul then fills up (hence, so does UTG). (Reply to this) (Parent)

	Hand #1 one more thought forrest_faulk 2005-08-31 08:52 pm UTC (link)
	Another reason against a high pair here AA KK etc is that if Paul jams the flop he makes it wrong for anyone to chase the flush draw (except maybe the first guy who checked who would get about 3-1 if the button called Paul’s jam) So I would think he would bet/jam the flop to make the flush draw pay while getting the wrong odds while I feel a check shows the true power of his hand. (Reply to this)

	halincandenza 2005-08-31 08:52 pm UTC (link)
	"I told jennifer that from what I had read, most poker players agreed it was a no-sweat laydown" paul, i agree with you that once you know the cards it's hard to distance yourself from that knowledge, but almost no one said it was a no sweat laydown, i mean, really, where are you getting this from? Just making it up to add support to your point is the way it seems. (Reply to this)

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