Well I'd assume a democrat, as I think the middle is still pissed at the GOP. So I think it's a choice between Hillary and Obama atm. So everything else being equal, it's a choice between overcomming sexism or racism.
Hillary looks like the big favorite from where I sit. I'm very much in favor of a woman president in the abstract, but I don't think she's the one I'd pick.
I've seen a few people make this claim, but it just isn't supported by the evidence IMO. If you look at the 2005 census data, Black men earn more than white women (they even earn more than white non-hispanic women).
On the voting side makup of congress is close to representative for race and senate is worse, with about a 50% drop from representative. However for gender it's about a 25% drop for both congress and senate.
Both of those data points heavily imply a black man has a much better chance of being elected president than a white woman, IMO.