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Sep. 15th, 2007 @ 04:02 am and those are the optimistic projections
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From:extempore
Date:September 17th, 2007 06:10 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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I suppose everyone has their own reason to spin numbers to match their own philosophy.

I guess. I think you're completely nuts if you believe you have any chance of collecting out of social security. That kind of faith only belongs in church.
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From:ooda_loop
Date:September 18th, 2007 04:09 am (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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I don't know what the entire future of ss is, but I suspect if you got out ole Al Gore's Lockbox and put the ss funds there...you'd go a fair ways toward heading off that particular set of problems.

Your childlike faith in Algore's Lockbox is amusing. Sadly, there are few politicians outside of Ron Paul willing to tell the truth about the Ponzi scheme called Social Security.
From:sansho1
Date:September 18th, 2007 12:40 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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I've never heard of a Ponzi scheme that paid out for seventy years. I'm not too worried about Social Security -- if there's one truth to American history over the last 40 years, it's "what the boomers want, the boomers get". And they're about to start collecting SS.
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From:extempore
Date:September 18th, 2007 01:24 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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I've never heard of a Ponzi scheme that paid out for seventy years.

This is pure magical thinking.

if there's one truth to American history...

...it's that making long-term projections about the future based primarily on what happened in the past is a sure recipe for being wrong. That's actually the one truth to all history.
From:sansho1
Date:September 18th, 2007 08:21 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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Social Security was implemented in 1937, so it's been paying out for seventy years.
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From:extempore
Date:September 18th, 2007 09:05 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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*Whoosh*, I guess. The magical thinking is not that ss has existed for seventy years, but that this somehow implies it will be going strong fifty years from now.
From:duality72
Date:September 17th, 2007 09:58 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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Get real. Or stick to Scrabble.
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From:extempore
Date:September 17th, 2007 10:54 pm (UTC)

Re: Cbo view

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You think you can make rock solid projections about what's going to happen in freaking 2053 and I need to get real? Also, why is it that it's always the most self-assured and least worthy of being so who say "...or stick to [poker|scrabble|what-have-you]"? Is there some psychological need to pigeonhole me into the "scrabble" box so you can guiltlessly discount my opinions? It's unbecoming.

I guess reading the black swan has heightened my distaste for people who think they can extrapolate the curve of their choosing out for half a freaking century, and worse, get all cocky about it, as if relying on a system the size of the us government to behave in the manner you have predicted for FIFTY YEARS is the sensible default position, and only loony scrabble players would contest it.
From:ooda_loop
Date:September 18th, 2007 03:59 am (UTC)

Nassim Taleb

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How was The Black Swan? I haven't read it yet, but it's on my "to read" list as Fooled by Randomness was terrific.
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From:extempore
Date:September 18th, 2007 12:20 pm (UTC)

Re: Nassim Taleb

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It has the same flaw as FBR - that every other page he writes something that makes you want to punch him in the face. Other than that it's a very powerful book. I hope to write more about it someday.