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Aug. 14th, 2004 @ 03:49 pm epiphany regarding television
I played in the bellagio $1000 tournament last night. I'm overexposed enough on TV lately that it seems like almost everyone has predefined expectations for how I'm going to play based on what they've seen of me on television.

In the course of talking to another guy about this, it suddenly became clear to me that this is to my advantage. I was never in the camp that having my hole cards exposed to the world would be detrimental to my results; I was indifferent because television almost never gives you enough context and unless you understand WHY a player does what he does, you are no closer to predicting his future actions.

But now I feel like I'm totally in a position to manipulate people who have seen me play on TV. Since I know exactly what's been on TV I can assemble a model of myself based on that and (with numerous caveats) grant that model to strangers. If you can form an accurate sense of your opponent's model of you and make the correct adjustments, you have a monster advantage.

The more I think about it the more convinced I am that this is a good thing.
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From:[info]brane
Date: August 15th, 2004 01:40 am (UTC)
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I assume you're not going into the specifics for obvious reasons. It's unfortunate for your loyal readers, though.
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From:[info]extempore
Date: August 15th, 2004 02:13 am (UTC)
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No, I wasn't being intentionally vague to hide anything. I have no secrets in poker. It's just that being meaningfully specific would require a more complicated and lengthy essay than I'm willing to write. I'm not even sure I can articulate all of it.

One oversimplified aspect is that people think I play looser preflop than I actually do, and that I play tighter postflop than I actually do. And I doubt whether most people can pick up from television how hyperconscious I am of position and how much that influences my decisions.

All in all I think I have a better running start to knowing where my unknown opponents are at than they do to knowing where I'm at.
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From:[info]abostick59
Date: August 15th, 2004 06:11 am (UTC)
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Is this really an epiphany? I rather had the impression, based on what you wrote here and here, that you were already thinking along these lines.
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From:[info]extempore
Date: August 15th, 2004 06:18 am (UTC)
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I'm not sure which line gives you that impression, but like I said, I was already indifferent. My new angle is viewing it as an active advantage.
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From:[info]abostick59
Date: August 15th, 2004 06:37 am (UTC)
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It all kind of goes together in my head: the misleading story of the WPT broadcast compared to the actual final table play; the active misunderstanding of your play that people have been posting to rgp and 2+2; and your claim to the stranger that you play much better than that guy on TV.

So who would you rather play against: an unknown player who hasn't watched any TV poker, or an unknown player who goes over and over the tapes trying to learn how the players play?

And how much do you think the TV appearances are influencing the reads on you by people with whom you've played many hours?
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From:[info]extempore
Date: August 15th, 2004 07:09 am (UTC)
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So who would you rather play against: an unknown player who hasn't watched any TV poker, or an unknown player who goes over and over the tapes trying to learn how the players play?

I think the latter, with the caveat that intense analysis may well reveal behavioral tells. That's my only real concern with having so much film out there.

And how much do you think the TV appearances are influencing the reads on you by people with whom you've played many hours?

Hard to say. I still usually bust myself stupidly, as opposed to feeling like the other guy did something particularly brilliant. One thing that has come with a measure of success is that the good players are less eager to play pots with me than they used to be. I have no objection to this.
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From:[info]shunny
Date: August 15th, 2004 09:21 pm (UTC)
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I think that especially with the limited hands shown of the WSOP final tables and the WPT final tables that people can get a strewn image of your play. Especially in the WSOP coverage where they usually only show the hole cards of people who decide to continue with the hand after the flop. In the WPT we get to see how tight/loose you are in hand selection with the hands we do get to see.

If there are more live poker events like at Turning Stone, it could be a bit more negative because you get to see everyone's hole cards and every hand provided it works properly - a lot of the hands at Turning Stone we couldn't tell what people had.

A key factor is that 6-person final table play is so radically different from early round play. So people sit down and see you across the table and might expect you to play a certain way whereas you would never play the way he saw you during the TV show because it was down to the last few and you had two short stacks to your left who you could steal the blinds from easily, etc.

With that said, you would have to really study tape to pick up some useful tidbits, and most players would be better off not bothering. I for one would rather be playing in the tournament then watching it, so sometimes watching WSOP and WPT tables is low on the list of things to do lately. And I'd rather sit down and watch your habits and play style at the table then constantly study it from TV.
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From:[info]shortypoke
Date: August 16th, 2004 06:04 pm (UTC)
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How many players are typically in those $1000 tournaments? Is the blind structure reasonable?

The 2 hour $30 local tournaments don't quite do it for me anymore, but of course I can't afford $5000+ events. The $500 and $1000 tournaments seem like a good next step, whenever I can make it out to Vegas.
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From:[info]markjohnson
Date: October 2nd, 2004 02:32 am (UTC)

tough tourney

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wednesday bellagio tourney: $540, 2000 chips, 40 minute levels starting at 25/50

friday: $1060, 3000 chips, 40 minute levels starting at 25/50.

overall, this is one of the toughtest fields you will ever see. very littel dead money. the last time i was in town, i started at a table with terry fleisher, greg raymer, ken james and david lolis (who you might not know now, but i am convinced with be a superstar with in a year or 2)


Also, there are 10 for 2 satelite for these tourneys starting at 9 in the morning for both tourneys.