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Apr. 23rd, 2005 @ 05:48 pm officially steaming now
Title: John Phan v. Paul Maxfield

Log: There is a three-way pot between John Phan, Paul Maxfield, and Hasan Habib, and it was $225,000 to go before the flop. The flop comes Jd-2h-2s, and Phan bets $300,000, Maxfield raises to $600,000, Habib folds, and Phan calls. The turn card is the 7h, Phan checks, Maxfield pushes all in for $1,105,000 more, and everything grinds to a halt as Phan thinks things over for almost ten minutes.

People in the crowd are even asking whether it's legal for another player to call the clock on him. Eventually, someone does, and as the minute counts down, Phan picks up his cards and plays with them, loosely, sliding them in and out of his chips, and generally not protecting them, but not showing them to Maxfield. Phan folds Q-J face up just as his time is about to expire, and then Maxfield shows one of his cards -- the 10 of clubs.

Shortly after the hand, John Phan declares that he is "officially steaming" now.


I BET.
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From:eraddeus
Date:April 24th, 2005 02:36 am (UTC)
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That's just sick. There's really no other way to describe it. Ouch.
From:jb6927
Date:April 24th, 2005 02:42 am (UTC)
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What a perfect card to show if you are Maxfield...
From:fmfundamentals
Date:April 24th, 2005 03:35 am (UTC)
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In my very limited NL experience, players showing only one card usually have a meaningful 2nd card. While he clearly had the worst hand, JT or TT seems likely. Even if it were a complete bluff, I don't see the big deal. Bluffs like this have to be common enough at this stage of a tournament. He kind of brought it on himself by showing his hand as he folded.
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 03:58 am (UTC)
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Bluffs like this have to be common enough at this stage of a tournament.

Not among people who have much chance of winning them they aren't.

He bet $1.1M into a pot with about $2M in it, and into a guy who had him covered. When the difference between 7th and 1st is about three million real dollars, most guys aren't keen on busting themselves by bluffing all-in with no-hand-no-draw when their opponent will be getting 3-1 on the call (and has top pair!)

It was most likely JT and if it was, I promise he didn't bet it thinking John would fold a better hand.
From:jacksup
Date:April 24th, 2005 05:29 am (UTC)
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I would think the prize difference between seventh and first is more reason to bluff. By avoiding bluffing, you're more likely to climb up the pay scale, but less likely to win, no?

Matt
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 05:36 am (UTC)
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My point in mentioning the amounts was that it was worth taking the decision seriously. Whether it's three million or three dollars at the top, I'm not a big fan of bluffing no-hand-no-draw into a guy who has called a preflop raise and a flop raise when I can only give him a 3-1 decision. Maybe that means I'm leaving a lot of money on the table, but...
From:jacksup
Date:April 24th, 2005 06:00 am (UTC)
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Ah, yes. I agree--my bustout hand from last year not withstanding (although I was only offering him 2.5-1 :) ).

Matt
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 06:23 am (UTC)
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Heh, I remembered that little detail right after I posted my last comment. Glad I didn't say "only a complete idiot would..." or some other indelicate observation. To make up for such a huge faux pas I'd have to name my daughter after your girlfriend.
From:fmfundamentals
Date:April 24th, 2005 09:30 am (UTC)
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Ok, so bluffing there is very unlikely. I guess Phan can get mad at himself for folding the best hand to someone value betting a second best hand, but I really don't think it's that big a deal. It should be less frustrating than a situation where you are actually bluffed out of a pot.

I read the point of your post to be that this was a situation to be very upset about, but I can't see it that way. I would be much more upset about losing a pair over pair all in or being dealt kings when someone else is dealt aces. All these occurences are a part of poker, and so is folding a hand which is behind an opponent's range of hands when it happens to be ahead of their particular hand. This is a lot of words to say I just don't see it as a big deal.

Incidentally, I actually interpreted your I BET to mean that you would have bet the turn instead of checking. I guess that's dumb.
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 09:40 am (UTC)
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I would be much more upset about losing a pair over pair all in or being dealt kings when someone else is dealt aces.

You would be much more upset about something that's totally out of your control than you would be about something totally within your control?

That's like worrying about nuclear war breaking out while you're driving around without a seat belt.
From:fmfundamentals
Date:April 24th, 2005 04:42 pm (UTC)
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Assuming both parties played the hand correctly, as you seemed to indicate, it isn't in anyone's control what the other person had. As I said before, it's just a matter of the other guy having the one hand out of 4-5 that you beat instead of one of the other 3-4 hands. Unless you played the hand incorrectly, it's out of your control. Can someone give off a tell that he has a ten kicker? Can you tell from the amount he raised on the flop that he didn't have AJ? Either he played it badly or it was out of his control.

Getting all in with KK preflop against AA is a similar situation with the opposite outcome. It's pretty hard in most cases to tell whether your opponent has the one hand that beats you or the 3-4 that are big underdogs.
As you said, you shouldn't get mad about that, as it's out of your control.
From:fmfundamentals
Date:April 24th, 2005 04:43 pm (UTC)
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I do like your analogy though.
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From:787style
Date:April 24th, 2005 10:28 pm (UTC)
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What's your opinion of how Phan played the hand prior to the fold? Specifically, the call of the $300K raise on the flop?
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 11:03 pm (UTC)
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Impossible to say. With a hand like that you just have to decide if you're beat. Can't make that decision without being there.

I do know that the one thing I would NOT do is call the flop raise with the intention of folding to another bet. If I just call there with top pair it's because I've decided I'm ahead. Bet away, I'm calling.
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From:787style
Date:April 24th, 2005 11:10 pm (UTC)
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Wanted to make sure I wasn't being complete naive in thinking that calling and folding unless a Q or J appears on the turn would be, well, generous.
From:deedeealone
Date:April 24th, 2005 03:44 am (UTC)
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Is there any chance Maxfield played T2 for $225,000?
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 04:02 am (UTC)
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Hard to say it's impossible, but it's of negligible likelihood. He'd have to have put in more than 10% of his chips in a 3-way raised pot. Even if he was closing the action in the big blind that would take some major league sickness.
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From:walterzuey
Date:April 24th, 2005 06:40 am (UTC)

AND

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on the zero chance he has it, it's still not 100% he plays it that way...
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From:funkiii
Date:April 24th, 2005 03:50 pm (UTC)

Re: AND

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assuming he did have it, I would say the probability is exactly 100% that he played it that way.
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From:extempore
Date:April 24th, 2005 05:47 pm (UTC)

Re: AND

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I had a different comment here and then I "got it."

You kids and your literal semantics.
From:i_know_it
Date:April 28th, 2005 09:42 pm (UTC)
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Id like to add a few comments about this hand as it seems to have caused a bit of controversy. I have spoke to Paul Maxfield about this hand and this is what he told me: He initially raised the pot intending to steal the blinds but found himself with 2 callers. The flop came down J J 2 . Phan lead out with a 300k bet , at this point Maxfield puts Phan on a weak J , (i.e 10 J
or JQ ) so Maxfield raises it up 300K. Maxfield feels confident in this play as he had already got Phan to lay down a couple of hands prior. It confirms his thoughts when Phan checks the turn ( 7 ) .Maxfield then moves in for 1.1 million representing the over pair or A J at worse. Like I said earlier , Maxfield feels confident that he can get Phan to put his hand down.
He was holding 9 , 10 . so the 7 gave him a gut shot out too. I believe it was a brave play which I think credit should be awarded
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From:extempore
Date:April 28th, 2005 10:14 pm (UTC)
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flop came down J J 2

I assume you mean J22.

He was holding 9 , 10

Wow. Sweet.

I believe it was a brave play which I think credit should be awarded

It's a hugely gutsy play, no question about the courage! I haven't been real thrilled with my results making similar plays but john folded just like he was supposed to, so good for maxfield.
From:i_know_it
Date:April 28th, 2005 10:49 pm (UTC)
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All I was trying to do was inform you of a few true facts, i.e he raised the pot, he didnt come into it for 10% of his stack. Also I wanted to tell you what his hand was when I said 9 , 10 . I wouldnt go as far as saying " wow sweet" hand. but each to their own.
p.s Thanks for pointing out the flop was actually J 2 2 not J J 2 as I posted.
I bet Ive made a few spelling mistakes also .
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From:extempore
Date:April 28th, 2005 11:09 pm (UTC)
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Whoa man, relax. No idea what you're getting worked up about.
From:i_know_it
Date:April 28th, 2005 11:33 pm (UTC)
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Srry , didnt think I was. Its these damn bad beats , they get to ya LOL
While we are on the subject of the WPT , whats your opinion on the so called percentage swapping between Habib and Tuan Le , some forums are suggesting it was as high as 50 % .This I may add might be all hearsay.